And in the last 14 days I’m seeing “refillable” and “dupe” search terms up about 22% while Meta CPMs dipped about 11%, which is changing which SKUs we push top-of-funnel. I stitched a lightweight signal stack (Amazon BSR deltas + TikTok Shop rank volatility + Google Shopping impression share) into a one-pager that flags SKUs to front-load; anyone want the template or have a better weighting?
Seeing the same about 11% CPM slide over the last 14 days — — and “refillable” is popping, but we kept over-pushing SKUs that were about to stock out. > signal stack (Amazon BSR deltas + TikTok Shop rank volatility + Google Shopping impression share) into We layer a simple inventory/margin gate (days-of-cover >21 and post-CPM contribution margin >$8) and toss TikTok spikes tied to flash coupons; weekend BSR noise gets smoothed with a 3-day EMA.
We add margin and lead-time gates before front-loading ‘refillable’; -11% CPM can mislead. https://trends.google.com.
I took your “BSR + TikTok rank volatility + Google Shopping impression share” and layered in Google’s price competitiveness and click share; , CPM dips kept tricking us into front-loading “refillable” SKUs that couldn’t win auctions. If price comp isn’t >95% for the last 14 days, we hold back, and it’s been better on “dupe” too; docs: https://support.google.com/merchants/answer/7675941. If you’re sharing the one-pager, I’ll trade my sheet.
Quick tip: I weight that stack by a simple “review velocity × subscribe rate” to surface refillables that stick. Then I cut bids if a rolling cart-adds nowcast puts days-of-cover under 10 — a seatbelt before the gas pedal, @lucasr1980.